Chelsea - 26/27 Draft FPL Pre-Season Thoughts

Written 23rd July 2026 · Everything here very much subject to change, subscribe to the podcast/YouTube channel for all the latest.

This blog is part of Draft FC's Team-by-Team 2026/27 early pre-season series — see all 20 previews in one place here

The table lied a bit

A flat, chaotic 10th on 52 points, redeemed only by the 2025 Club World Cup already sitting in the trophy room. And now another new era, Xabi Alonso in on a 4-year deal. His Leverkusen/Madrid blueprint - possession dominance, a hybrid back three, inverting full-backs, elite rest-defence - is about the strongest stylistic upgrade you could apply to a squad that spent last season chaotic in both boxes. I'd expect more control and a meaningful uptick in clean sheets. Mid-table badly understates the ceiling of this squad and although Arsenal remain clear favourite for the title, do not be surprised to see Chelsea rise up into the Champions League places very quickly.

Palmer, the bounce-back pick of the summer?

Palmer's 114 points was one of the biggest drop-offs in the league - injuries wrecked his rhythm and, frankly, the team gave him very little to work with at times. He still scored 10 goals and went 5 from 6 on penalties. Now he gets a coach who should provide a much clearer structure and allow him to get into far more dangerous positions again. He's definitely a first-rounder for me, but he's bounced around spots 3 to 9 already in the last few weeks for me - wait and see where he lands when I put out my big top-20 video in a couple of weeks.

Will Enzo be staying?

Our model has Enzo Fernández projected at 160+ and in this instance the data and my eyes agree completely. A quick word on what xGI over-performance and under-performance actually tell us, because Enzo is the perfect example: he finished about 4.5 goal involvements below what the chances he took and created should have produced. When output lags strong underlying numbers like that, the underlying numbers usually win the argument eventually. Add free-kick and corner duty, and a system that should push him further forward and this is what a good pick should look like.

The biggest issue is that he seems to be in the shop window, with a reported price tag of £120m. The fact Chelsea have pre-emptively spent that money on a player likely to occupy a similar starting spot, doesn't make me want to pick Enzo up on draft day...

The £117m gamble

A new British transfer record for Morgan Rogers, £117m from Aston Villa. Reports touting this as a 'hijack' deal under Arsenal's noses, but the reality is Arsenal just saw sense and knew his value was nowhere near that money. The talent is obvious though, 169 points, 10 goals, 8 assists and one of our model's highest projections in the region of 175-200 FPL points. He has been extremely reliable, making 37 appearances in both of the last 2 seasons at Villa, with 18 goals and 19 assists across those 74 appearances. The caveats - he over-performed his xGI by nearly 5, he faded by about 0.7 points per game after the turn of the year and he blanked 18 times.

The Chelsea-specific question is the role. If Alonso runs something like his Leverkusen back 3 with 2 advanced creators, Palmer and Rogers as the dual tens is a genuinely frightening thought and you could argue they raise each other's value. If it's a 4-2-3-1, one or both of them are playing wider but I still think both are included. The question we have to wrestle with now is whether the move raises his floor, or if there is some settling in to be accounted for in a club in transition.

The set-up

As I was just eluding to, we're still not sure how Alonso is going to set up for the majority of the season. The chances are it will likely change and be adaptable.

Caicedo began last season as a defcon machine but faded big time, either way it didn't matter which manager came in, he will be in the starting XI. Cucurella has gone, sold to Real Madrid for £47.5m, which removes the best attacking full-back option and opens a genuine hole on the left. The remaining full back-back depth chart of Gusto, James, Hato and new £49m right-back Palestra suddenly matters a great deal if Alonso runs his back three.

If you look at Palestra's career, up through the Atalanta system, a season-long loan to Cagliari last year, and then a big money move to Chelsea - that should be enough to tell you he is an exciting prospect. He's quick, runs very fast and did I mention he was the fastest logged player in Serie A last year? All jokes aside, he's more than a rapid wing-back, he loves a skill, Cruyff turns, nutmegs, the lot, and is one of those players that you watch and he just reminds you of some previous greats. As a Spurs fan, a worrying comparison I would make (albeit on the opposite side) is to a young Gareth Bale.

The striker spot firmly belongs to João Pedro who has firmly proven me wrong and I can say I am now a rater not a hater. Pedro put up 6 FPL points per game towards the end of last year, with NPxGI per 90 of 0.7 per 90, that is elite output. Delap's first season was poor on both the eye and the stats, and I could genuinely see him leaving already. Nicholas Jackson is technically back in the building following his load to Bayern, a player I still rate, but I think his value as a departure is too high considering he's unlikely to be part of Alonso's plans.

Quenda, £44m from Sporting, arrives with real hype for the right wing, and Estêvão who had an excellent debut season is going to have to get over a big hamstring injury before being introduced this year.

The opening run

Fulham away on the Monday night of GW1 - a London derby against a fellow new-manager side - then Brighton at home, Arsenal away in GW3, Hull at home, Brentford away, Bournemouth at home. The Arsenal trip aside, that's very playable.

Early verdict

A team I expect to improve a lot this season as Alonso inherits top-4 talent that need a kick up the arse. Palmer is the bounce-back pick of the summer, Enzo is too risky for me and the clean sheets should genuinely improve, it just remains to be seen who plays in defence. We still need pre-season to answer some questions but the prime draft assets should be fine regardless of the tactics.

Stay shook,

Draft FC Mitch