Arsenal - 26/27 Draft FPL Pre-Season Thoughts

Written 18th July 2026 · Everything here very much subject to change, subscribe to the podcast/YouTube channel for all the latest.

This blog is part of Draft FC's Team-by-Team 2026/27 early pre-season series — see all 20 previews in one place here

They did it

Arteta did it. Reigning champions, 85 points, +44 GD, the best defence in the league again and a 22-year drought finally put to bed. Arteta stays, obviously, and the system isn't going anywhere either, possession-heavy 4-3-3, slow strangle, and an absolute mountain of set-piece goals (which I expect to continue). From a draft point of view, Arsenal are the team where we kind of know what we're getting which is always welcome. The essence/spine of the team is there and it feels like any transfers now are incremental improvements, with the left-wing spot the most obvious space in need of an upgrade.

Potential midfield traffic jam

Bruno Guimarães and Morgan Rogers (scrap that - Chelsea have gone mad!) are both being loudly linked and if either of them actually lands? They'd be arriving on top of Rice, Ødegaard, Eze, Havertz, Zubimendi and Lewis-Skelly, with Saka, Madueke, Martinelli and Dowman (Trossard has gone) already scrapping over the wide spots. Even by Arsenal standards that's a glut. So until I see actual preseason XIs and transfer business I'm not locking in a confident rank for any Arsenal midfielder outside of Rice and Saka. Definitely a watch this space.

It will be interesting to see how much game time Eze & Ødegaard get this season, as rumours linking Morgan Rogers would indicate a lack of trust in the existing attacking midfielders. Eze was the definition of feast or famine last year, with one of the most inconsistent point scoring of all the big midfielders, while Ødegaard was the opposite, very consistent but just not particularly exciting.

The other confirmed business is much quieter: Hincapié made permanent for £34.5m (formality), Meslier in as backup keeper and Kiwior off to Porto.

The numbers that matter

Rice was my king of the all-rounders last season. 184 points, 4 goals, 9 assists, 28 defcon points, 18 clean sheets and nailed on every single week. It still feels slightly wrong saying a central midfielder could be a first-round pick, but the numbers don't lie. Having a player in your team with so many avenues for points, particularly in head-to-head leagues is an enviable asset. Rice scored 5 or more FPL points in 17 different weeks last season. There was some regression in the back-half of the season but I think this can be explained by the team circumstances as much as his own.

Saka managed 157 points in only 2,225 minutes (31 appearances). Another injury-ridden season where he never quite found any meaningful rhythm. Fit and playing 38 games with closer to 3,000 minutes and he's an obvious top-5 pick, penalties and corners included, so the reliability question is genuinely the only thing affecting where he ends up in our ranks. This is part of the fun of summer planning because there is no model in the world that can reliably tell us how many points Saka will post next season (including our own). An off-season on the beach would have made things look a lot brighter but seeing his minutes managed through a long, hot, world cup campaign means he may require easing into the upcoming season. The fact that it's an achilles tendinopathy (according to reports) also gives me pause for thought as that's not the sort of injury that just vanishes and is highly likely to flare up again.

The best defender in the game

Gabriel is easily the best defender in the game right now and I don't think it's particularly close. 209 points with plenty of returns at both ends. I'm not predicting any major drop-off in Arsenal as a defensive unit as the personnel doesn't have to change this season and they can build on what they've already created there. If we look a bit deeper at Gabriel's numbers last season, he had one of the lowest coefficient of variation values in the entire league at just 0.61. For those of you who skipped stats classes back in the day, this number is a player's standard deviation divided by their average weekly score - this allows us to rank consistency even amongst players with different averages. 7.5 FPL points per game in the front half of last season dropping to 5.9 on the home straight further backs up the point regarding Declan Rice above, which is to say, Arsenal players generally dropped off a bit.

The main flag is that he over-performed his xGI by about 3 and nearly all of his attacking value is set-piece goals. Opponents will be particularly switched on to this now (if they weren't already), so we have to wait and see whether Arsenal can continue to innovate their set-piece tactics, or whether opposition defences can scheme against them better this season. Even if we bank the floor, clean sheets plus defcons and treat the goals as a bonus, we still have an excellent draft asset. Personally, I see the league in general leaning into set-pieces further this year - without some meaningful adjustment to the laws/refereeing directives, there is too much of an advantage to be found at the moment.

One piece of news from the World Cup that will affect our draft boards is an injury to Saliba, with reports he may have to undergo surgery to sort out a stress fracture in his back. Initial estimates have him out for a few months and this seems more believable with rumours Arsenal are also interested in Ezri Konsa (who would provide dual cover at RCB & RB) who fits the exact mould Arteta wants.

Just on a similar note, Raya was the standout keeper and I'd say it's quite difficult to see past him doing it again.

Where will the goals come from?

The big-money striker transfer the fans had been crying out for arrived last summer in the form of Gyökeres. 14 goals, 128 points is alright, but so far hasn't really lived up to the price tag. I've called him a flat-track bully before and I'm not fully retracting it, a lot of those goals came against the weaker sides. Only 3 of his goals came against teams that finished in European spots last season - 2 vs Sunderland & 1 vs Bournemouth. The annoying part is the presence of Havertz who Arteta continues to favour in key moments. But 26 blanks in 36 appearances makes him one of the most boom-or-bust forward options in the rankings. Decent ceiling, rough floor and that matters a lot more in H2H than classic. I do wonder if they go back into the market here, perhaps somebody younger (someone like Eli Kroupi Jr would seem perfect for Arsenal in my opinion, which is annoying to point out as a Spurs fan...).

The opening run

Arguably Arsenal have the easiest opening 6 in the league by my fixture tiers: Coventry at home on the Friday night curtain-raiser, Villa away, Chelsea at home, Sunderland away, Brighton away, Leeds at home. So if you're umming and ahhing between an Arsenal asset and someone comparable elsewhere, the fixtures break the tie. It also means the fringe names like Eze and other back-up attackers are worth more in the opening weeks than their season-long rank suggests. Could Eze go for a monster haul against Coventry on opening night? Could Madueke start and haul while Saka is still getting up to 100%? Absolutely they could.

Early verdict

Arsenal will supply more draftable players than anyone else: Raya, Gabriel, Timber, Rice, Saka are all top-tier at their positions, with the softest start in the league as a sweetener. A star addition on the left or in central midfield would also be hard to turn down on draft day though we should be warned that Arteta has a habit of bedding in new players slower than other other managers. It's far too early to do league table predictions, but I'm not sure what would have to change for me not to predict another title for Arteta this season amidst a landscape of teams in transition.

Stay shook,

Draft FC Mitch