Stop sleeping on these winners! | FPL Draft GW30 Waiver Tips

Waiver deadline: Friday 13th March, 1:30pm UK | GW30 deadline: Saturday 14th March, 1:30pm UK

Top Picks This Week

Midfielders

Rodri (Manchester City)

The Ballon d'Or winner is back and starting to look like his old self. Rodri sits at 51% ownership in top 200 ten-team leagues — still available in roughly half of the most competitive leagues and far more widely elsewhere.

Since gameweek 22 he's posted three points or more consistently, and last weekend he bagged his first Premier League goal of the season for a nine-point haul. He's hitting the defensive contribution threshold half the time over the past couple of months, and still has a game in hand.

The caveat: City blank in GW31 due to the Carabao Cup Final against Arsenal. If you can afford to bench him that week and field a decent 11, the pay-off could come later — he's nailed on to play both games when City's double gameweek arrives. A solid set-and-forget fourth or fifth midfielder for the run-in.

Anton Stach (Leeds United)

~94% owned in top engaged leagues and rightly so. Since returning from injury three weeks ago, Stach has posted 36 defcons across three gameweeks. He takes the majority of set pieces — corners, crossing free kicks and direct shots on goal — gets into dangerous positions in the box, and now has 10 attacking returns for the season.

Leeds' fixture run from here is very favourable. Arguably their only tough remaining game is a trip to Old Trafford after the international break. If he stays fit, Stach looks like a top-30 midfielder for the rest of the season — and even in a 6-team league, that means he needs to be in somebody's team.

Eberechi Eze (Arsenal)

Just shy of 93% owned with a home game against Everton coming up. He's started three consecutive Premier League games thanks partly to injuries to Ødegaard and Merino (out for the season). Five of his six goals this season have come against Spurs, which is worth noting.

Head-to-head leagues: With a blank the following week and competition for minutes potentially returning, it's hard to recommend him as a waiver pickup. Classic scoring leagues: He can deliver a monster gameweek — but it's feast or famine with Eze.

Alex Iwobi (Fulham) — A Word of Caution

There's been plenty of chatter about Iwobi this week, but be careful. He's heavily reliant on attacking returns, rarely gets near the defensive contribution threshold, and a chunk of his recent form came against Tottenham. His non-penalty expected goal involvements per 90 is around 0.22 — lukewarm at best. He's also playing deeper than this time last season, so don't expect him in the same advanced areas. If you already own him heading to Forest, no need to panic — but if you're dismantling your midfield to get him in, pump the brakes.

Jaidon Anthony (Burnley)

36% owned with three returns in his last four appearances — the first Burnley player to hit 100 FPL points this season. After a barren mid-season spell he's riding Burnley's improved form. Nice run of fixtures coming up through and beyond the international break. Worth a look if your midfield is looking stale.

Defenders

James Hill (Bournemouth)

95% ownership in top 200 leagues, but still available in more than a third of all ten-team leagues. Averaging 13.2 defensive actions per 90 — the highest of any regularly playing defender in recent months. Our expected points model tips him for just over six points this gameweek. Consistent since gameweek 19 with over five FPL points per 90 on average. If he's in your waiver pile, he has to be picked up.

Jeremie Frimpong (Liverpool)

92.5% owned and averaging 6.5 FPL points per 90 across the season. Liverpool face Tottenham this weekend — without doubt the worst team in Europe right now. He won't be getting clean sheet points, but tackle and defensive action returns are very much on the cards.

Brentford defenders — avoid this week. Good fixture on paper against Wolves, but Wolves are in excellent form and most of the Brentford defenders rely on clean sheets and attacking returns rather than defensive contributions.

Forwards

Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa)

66% owned. Reliable bench minutes that could convert into a start soon — Watkins just isn't delivering. There's also a possibility the two could play together. If your striker options are thin, he's an interesting pick.

Zian Flemming (Burnley)

86% ownership following two goals in his last two starts. Missed the most recent game with a calf injury but reports sound minor — he's expected to start at home to Bournemouth. Around 0.3 expected goal involvements per 90 across the season, improving in recent weeks. If fit, one of the more in-form strikers from one of the more in-form teams.

Jørgen Strand Larsen (Crystal Palace)

100% owned in top 200 leagues so unlikely to be available — but worth highlighting. Three goals in his last four games and he looks like the player many expected at the start of the season. Palace blank in GW31, which means a double gameweek is coming. One to target in a trade if you can.

Hidden Gems (Under 10% Ownership)

🌟 Habib Diarra (Sunderland) — Top Hidden Gem Pick

Just 7% owned in top leagues. Diarra has started the last six Premier League games in central midfield, operating in an advanced number 10 role. Crucially, he appears to be Sunderland's penalty taker — he's stepped up twice this season and scored both. Four returns in his last six games.

Home game against Brighton this week is a decent matchup, and they host Spurs after the international break. If you're in a league with more than 12 managers, somebody should have him.

Other Hidden Gems:

• Jensen (Brentford) — Good underlying numbers, just hasn't delivered the big gameweek yet. Home vs Wolves is appealing.
• Tonali (Chelsea) — Short-term punt in a large league with Chelsea's European rotation in mind.
• Joao Gomes (Wolves) — One of the biggest defensive contribution merchants in the league. That's all he is, but he does it consistently.
• Joe Worrall (Burnley) — Currently averaging the most defensive contributions per 90 in recent weeks. Burnley at home, don't bet against a clean sheet.
• Osula (Newcastle) — 0% owned in top 200 leagues. Started the Champions League game against Barcelona and came off the bench to score the winner recently. In bigger leagues, he's a punt worth taking.

Hold, Drop or Trade?

Adli (Bournemouth) — Drop. Inconsistent minutes, competition for his spot and tricky remaining fixtures. Not reliable enough with fewer than 10 weeks to go.

Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) — Trade. Just over four points per 90 — roughly half of what anyone expected when drafting him. Fixtures aren't as appealing as they look on paper either. His name still carries value, so target a one-for-one trade for the likes of Strand Larsen, Evan Nielsen, Raul Jimenez or Danny Welbeck. Sell the ceiling, raise the floor.

Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) — Hold. Three returns in the last 10 games might cause concern, but he's Villa's clear talisman. If anyone capitalises on a good Villa moment, it'll be Rogers.

Pascal Gross (Brighton) — Drop. 3.6 points per 90 and 0.3 expected goal involvements per 90. Serviceable, but you can almost certainly do better with that squad slot.

Calafiori (Arsenal) — Drop. Still over 73% owned in engaged leagues, which feels too high. Trent is the nailed-on starter and there's no real evidence that's changing.

Kieran Dewsbury-Hall (Everton) — Hold. Don't be put off by the trip to the Emirates this week — bench him if you need to, but do not release him. Close to 0.5 non-penalty expected goal involvements per 90 in recent weeks, and he's showing up defensively too. Players of his calibre don't grow on trees.

DEFCON Data: Which Teams Give Up the Most?

Some great data from the Draft FC team this week breaking down defensive contribution thresholds across the season.

Best teams for getting DEFCON from your own players:

• Bournemouth & Everton — 81 thresholds hit each; Bournemouth have had zero shutouts (at least one player hits the threshold every single game)

Worst for your own players:

• Aston Villa — only 24 occurrences, with zero players hitting the threshold in 12 of their games
• Manchester City — just 32 occurrences

Best opponents to face for DEFCON:

• Newcastle — 72 opposing players have hit the threshold in 29 games
• Everton — 70 (Everton games tend to be high-action regardless of which side you own)

Toughest opponents:

• West Ham — just 33 opposing players across 29 games, roughly one per match
• Fulham — similarly stingy

This data is being incorporated into the Draft FC members area soon!

GW31: Blank Alert

Keep one eye on GW31 — it's a shortened gameweek. No Arsenal vs Wolves (already played) and no City or Palace fixture yet scheduled. In head-to-head leagues, fielding fewer than 10 starters puts you at a real disadvantage.

• Don't overlook your goalkeepers — a free agent option may be available if you have two from blank teams
• DEFCON merchants like Zubamendi or Rodri and Crystal Palace or Wolves defenders are effectively droppable if you need cover
• Factor the blank into your GW30 waiver decisions now

Q&A

Wood and Mateta updates? Wood is nowhere near a return. Mateta, even when fit, looks set for rotational minutes — Strand Larsen is the future at Palace. Still a drop.

Isak? Still roughly a month away, but the international break compresses that into fewer gameweeks. Even on return, expect limited minutes with Ekitike in strong form.

City fringe players — Marmoush, Doku, O'Reilly? O'Reilly is nailed — pick him up immediately if he's floating in your waiver pile, he's playing an attacking midfield role and is not to be overlooked. Marmoush is possibly more nailed than he's getting credit for, but he's feast or famine — better suited to classic scoring leagues. Doku doesn't seem worth it right now.

How to close out a league title?

Classic scoring: If you're ahead, keep doing what's worked! If you're chasing, take more risks — volatile assets, doubling up on strong teams' defensive players, go big or go home.

Head-to-head: Focus on the managers who can realistically catch you. Winning the matchup against second or third place could be the difference, even if you drop points elsewhere. When you're ahead, the golden rule is: don't change too much.

Predicted lineups for GW30 are live at draftfc.co.uk — free for all. Subscribers get the full stats hub, squad planner and live match notifications. Good luck for the weekend — until next time, stay shook!