FPL Draft GW38: Bernardo Silva & Salah Farewell Picks + Arsenal Rotation

Top Three Gameweek 38 Waiver Targets

The final gameweek of Fantasy Premier League brings unique narratives that could drive unexpected performances, making waiver strategy particularly intriguing. My top three picks all center around farewell storylines that could provide extra motivation.

Bernardo Silva takes the top spot for his final game in a Manchester City shirt at Aston Villa. The model predicts just over six expected points, but his recent form averaging 2.4 points over five games doesn't tell the full story when emotional subplots are involved.

M.Salah claims second place for what will be his final Anfield appearance in a Liverpool shirt against Brentford. With 85.6% overall ownership but only 76% start probability, he's actually available in waiver piles across many leagues due to his unpredictable minutes this season. The model has him at 4.8 expected points, but this could easily explode to 25 points depending on his motivation for the farewell!

Ampadu rounds out the top three as the 'safe' option, facing West Ham away. This 'stone cold defcon merchant' offers the security of defensive contributions regardless of how the match unfolds, with 6.0 expected points and strong recent form averaging 5.2 points over his last five games. At just 28.5% overall ownership, he's widely available despite West Ham's desperate need for three points to stay up.

Defensive Value and Contribution Merchants

Maguire leads the defensive recommendations for Manchester United's trip to Brighton, with United having nothing meaningful to play for in terms of league position. The model expects just under six points (5.3 expected), and he's been delivering consistent returns with 4.2 points per game over his last five matches. His 36.3% overall ownership makes him accessible in many leagues.

Botman continues his excellent defensive contribution form for Newcastle's fixture at Fulham. He's been averaging just under 14 defensive contributions per 90 over recent weeks - the best rate in the league for defenders in that timeframe. Despite this elite floor, he's owned in just 25.3% of leagues, making him an excellent waiver target even with modest 4.1 expected points.

For Everton's trip to Tottenham, Mykolenko offers a route into what could be a possession-heavy performance regardless of the result. While his recent form shows just 1.2 points over five games, the model projects 5.4 expected points in this fixture. Other defensive doubles like Chelsea's Gusto at Sunderland or West Ham's Mavropanos hosting Leeds could work if you're looking to go against the grain, though both carry their own risks.

Pedro Porro and Tottenham Caution

Pedro Porro deserves a mention for Tottenham's home fixture against Everton, but comes with heavy caution. Despite impressive recent form averaging 4.6 points over his last five games and 88.3% ownership suggesting widespread manager confidence, the model only projects 3.2 expected points for this fixture.

The concern isn't just about the numbers - it's about Tottenham's ability to deliver in what should be a straightforward home fixture against a team with European ambitions but inconsistent away form. While Porro has been one of the most reliable fantasy defenders this season, this particular gameweek setup doesn't inspire confidence for explosive returns.

Manchester United's Bruno Connection and Midfield Opportunities

Amad Diallo represents a clever angle to exploit Bruno Fernandes' desperation to break the assist record in United's trip to Brighton. Bruno has been playing almost comically focused on setting up teammates rather than shooting, making his attacking partners more valuable than their raw numbers suggest. At 44.0% ownership with 3.5 expected points, Amad offers a narrative play that could overperform.

Gibbs-White has been quietly elite this season, sitting eighth overall for FPL points with 14 goals, and could be motivated to cement his England squad place. He's averaging an impressive 8.8 points over his last five games, making him one of the most underrated performers who filled the void during difficult periods for Forest. His 5.7 expected points for the trip to Bournemouth reflect this consistent quality.

Anthony offers a route into the low-stakes Burnley versus Wolves fixture, with the model fancying him for 5.0 expected points. At 41.1% ownership, he's accessible while providing exposure to what could be an open, entertaining match between two teams with little pressure. Scott continues as a 'grind out points' option similar to Ampadu, projected for 5.1 points at Forest with his typical defensive contribution floor.

Arsenal Rotation Goldmine

Rather than completely avoiding Arsenal due to Champions League final rotation concerns, there's opportunity in picking up bench players from waiver piles. With Arsenal facing Crystal Palace just six days before their European final, and Palace having their own Conference League final three days later, both teams will heavily rotate.

Eze returning to Selhurst Park offers 'gold-plated haul potential' but sits at 94.9% ownership, making him largely unavailable. However, Martinelli at just 26.0% ownership could be hungry to prove himself, as there are suspicions he might be sold in the summer as a position Arsenal could upgrade. His 2.0 expected points seem low given the potential for heavy rotation above him.

Madueke will definitely come in for the rested Saka and 'can do things on his day,' sitting at 30.7% ownership with 2.5 expected points. Mosquera likely continues at right-back due to lack of other options, offering defensive stability at 35.5% ownership. The sweeping changes predicted for Arsenal's lineup make these rotation players viable FPL Draft targets despite the meaningless nature of the fixture.

Deep League Hidden Gems

For managers in deeper leagues, several ultra-low ownership options offer genuine value. Lukić for Fulham's trip to Newcastle sits at just 0.3% ownership while projected for 4.5 expected points, quietly racking up defensive contributions in what could be a midfield battle. His recent form of 3.0 points over five games shows steady returns.

Sangaré offers similar value for Forest at Bournemouth with virtually no ownership (0.4%) but 4.2 expected points and 78% start probability. Wieffer could return from injury for Brighton's home fixture against Manchester United, offering his typically high floor if fit, though his 67% start probability reflects injury uncertainty.

Xhaka has arguably been Sunderland's player of the season and could deliver around four points (4.1 expected) in their home fixture against Chelsea, where Sunderland will want to sign off positively. At 57.1% ownership, he's more widely held than the other deep picks but still accessible. Stones presents the ultimate 'hidden gem' option - if Manchester City finally give him a start with nothing riding on the result, his previous scoring ability could provide massive upside, though his 12% start probability makes this a pure lottery ticket.

Robertson's Liverpool Farewell

Robertson playing his final game for Liverpool adds another emotional subplot to consider, though his situation differs significantly from the premium farewell plays. At just 33.8% overall ownership and a concerning 34% start probability, he's both widely available and risky for lineup decisions.

His recent form of 2.0 points over five games and minimal 0.9 expected points for the Brentford fixture suggest rotation has already begun affecting his minutes. While the farewell narrative could provide motivation, the combination of likely reduced minutes and poor recent returns makes him a risky waiver claim unless you're specifically targeting the emotional angle in deeper leagues where every edge matters.